There is some information about public transport networks which
most us would expect to be freely available. Patronage,
which is the number of passenger journeys on a network over a period of time,
usually monthly and annually, is an example of this type of information.
It’s not just the absolute number that’s important, but also
the trend over time. What is the growth in patronage over 10 years? Or is it
declining? How does growth on one mode compare with others? Does the growth
vary between lines? Is the growth in peak periods or off peak?
You might assume that patronage in New South Wales is nothing more than a count
of Opal card tap ons or ticket sales, but this was never the case and it’s not
now. As well as Opal tap ons, patronage includes an estimate of non-ticketed
journeys, untapped school student travel and integrated ticketing special event
travel.
Sydney Ferries’ patronage figures used to be made available
by a part of Transport for NSW known as the Bureau of Transport Statistics or
BTS. BTS published a lot of information on its website about Sydney Ferries,
including monthly patronage by service area (Manly, Inner Harbour and
Parramatta River) going back six or seven years. It also released data from a seven day census taken twice a year of passenger boardings and disembarkations by wharf, service
and time of day. It even provided the name of the vessel and its capacity, so
if you knew what you were doing, you could estimate capacity utilisation by
service.
Summaries of the ferry census were produced by the BTS,
showing trends in passenger loadings by time of day, individual routes and
wharves.
I liked dealing with the BTS. I was never in doubt that they were on the side of transparency, high standards and the pursuit of knowledge.
The BTS was restructured in 2016 into Transport Performance and Analytics (TPA). The old was swept away with
promises that even better information would be released, thanks to the higher
quality Opal data now available. And a new website, Open Data, was created to
make it easier for advanced users to download Opal and a range of information
from other “big data” sources.
So where does that leave us with ferry patronage? There is a
data visualisation on the TPA website called “Historical Patronage Counts”, which shows NSW
patronage by mode and financial year, back to 2010-11. The 2016-17 count for
ferries is 16.009 million, up from 15.410 million in the previous year. The
explanatory notes inform that ferry patronage includes Opal journeys, magnetic
stripe ticket validations (July 2016 only) and an estimate of non ticketed
journeys. No problems there, except that the number for 2016-17 includes Newcastle ferry patronage.
This amounts to about 470,000, give or take 50,000, so Sydney Ferries patronage
last year was actually somewhere between 15.5 and 15.6 million, or only a
little more than 2015-16.
What the heck?
After a series of polite email exchanges with someone at
TPA, who describes him or herself only as “TPA Inbox Manager”, I’ve reached the
conclusion that the taxpayers of New South Wales will never find out exactly what
Sydney Ferries patronage was in 2016-17. It will only be published at the “top
line level” - a total for Sydney Ferries and Newcastle Ferries and will remain
forever incompatible with the counts for all previous years. Not only don’t we
know what the patronage was precisely, but the historical patronage chart compares
apples with pears. Or apples with apples plus grapes.
It could be argued that this is all just pedantry on my part.
Who cares if Sydney Ferries’ patronage is 15.5 million or 15.6 million, or if Newcastle
ferry numbers are lumped in from July 2016. Near enough is good enough. And
anyway, TPA does provide monthly counts of Opal trips by line and fare
category, which the BTS did not publish.
Even if I am a pedant, there are more serious concerns about
information transparency. I naively welcomed the promise of granular level opal
trip information. Rather than rely on a seven day census count, twice a year,
we could now expect more accurate Opal tap data over 365 days of the year, with
origin-destination pairs.
Well, it has yet to happen. The little snippets made
available on the Open Data site is subject to strict privacy controls. The counts
of tap ons and offs for individual wharves in 15 minute “bins” are only
reported if the value is 18 or more. In practice, the vast majority of wharves
have very few 15 minute bins which qualify, so the data is of little analytical
value. And the latest counts available are from January 2017, almost a year
ago.
I asked a planner at Transport for NSW last year if he was
worried about the 20% decline in ferry commuter patronage in the AM peaks (that
information used to be available from the BTS published ferry census data). “No,”
he replied,“the latest Opal data shows a big turnaround. But it’s information
that only TfNSW has access to”.
The news that commuter ferry patronage is growing again was
of course very reassuring, although it would be good if the information was published.
Then everyone can access detailed patronage data to see for themselves how demand
for Sydney Ferries’ services is trending.
I miss the BTS.